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HomeArticlesVol 36,2026 No.9Detail

Trends and short-term forecasts of the burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1990 to 2023

Published on Sep. 29, 2026Total Views: 478 timesTotal Downloads: 187 timesDownloadMobile

Author: XU Fang 1 LUO Ling 1 LI Bin 1 LIU Peng 1, 2

Affiliation: 1.Deparment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Ziyang Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, Ziyang 641399, Sichuan Province, China 2.Second Clinical School of Ningxia Medical University/Yinchuan First People's Hospital, Yinchuan 750004, China

Keywords: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma Disease burden Joinpoint regression ARIMA model

DOI: 10.12173/j.issn.1004-5511.202606032

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Abstract

Objective To analyze the trends in the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in China from 1990 to 2023 and to predict the short-term disease burden from 2024 to 2030.

Methods Based on the data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, the number of cases, crude rates, age-standardized rates (ASRs), and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for incidence, mortality, and DALYs of NPC in China from 1990 to 2023 were extracted. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to assess long-term trends. Joinpoint regression was applied to identify temporal changes and calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed to predict the overall ASRs from 2024 to 2030.

Results From 1990 to 2023, the number of new NPC cases in China increased from 53,090.14 to 86,937.16, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 5.33 per 100,000 to 4.29 per 100,000. The number of deaths decreased from 38,013.17 to 27,044.66, and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) declined from 4.05 per 100,000 to 1.22 per 100,000. DALYs decreased from 1,370,696.93 person-years to 847,051.03 person-years, and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) declined from 133.39 per 100,000 to 40.07 per 100,000. The disease burden was consistently higher in males than in females. EAPC analysis showed that ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR all exhibited declining trends, with EAPCs of -1.29%, -4.35%, and -4.41%, respectively. Joinpoint analysis revealed turning points in ASIR around 1995 and 2010, followed by a slight increase after 2011; ASMR and ASDR declined rapidly after 1997, with slower reductions after 2012—2013. ARIMA model predictions indicated that ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR in 2030 would be 3.85 per 100,000, 0.99 per 100,000, and 30.78 per 100,000, respectively.

Conclusion From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized disease burden of NPC in China generally declined, with substantial improvements in mortality and DALYs. However, the number of new cases continued to increase. The disease burden remained consistently higher in males than in females, and the overall ASIR showed a slight increase after 2011, highlighting the need to strengthen surveillance and prevention strategies among high-risk populations.

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