Objective  To analyze the burden and attributable risk factors of depression among Chinese adolescents aged 10~24 years from 1990 to 2021.

Methods  Based on the data of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the incidence rate, prevalence, disability adjusted life year (DALY), and it's average annua percentage change (AAPC) and attributable risk factors of depression among Chinese adolescents aged 10 to 24 years from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the time trend of indicators of the burden of depression. Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model predicted the trend of depression among adolescents aged 10 to 24 years from 2022 to 2035.

Results  In 2021, the number of new cases of depression among Chinese adolescents aged 10 to 24 was 3.247 million, with a total of 2.9614 million affected individuals and a DALY of 511,200 person years. Compared with 1990, these figures decreased by 61.76%, 57.50%, and 59.92%, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis found that the incidence rate [AAPC= -1.716%, 95%CI (-1.958%, -1.474%)], prevalence [AAPC=-1.375%, 95%CI (-1.585%, -1.165%)], and DALY rate [AAPC=-1.563%, 95%CI (-1.842%, -1.283%)] of depression in Chinese adolescents aged 10 to 24 years from 1990 to 2021 showed a downward trend. Comparing gender subgroups, it was found that adolescent females have a higher disease burden than males. In 2021, the attribution factors for adolescent depression DALY were ranked as bullying victimization, intimate partner violence, and childhood sexual abuse. ARIMA predicts that from 2022 to 2035, the incidence rate of depression among adolescents aged 10 to 24 in China will decline, and the prevalence rate and DALY rate will rise first and then decline.

Conclusion  The burden of depression among adolescents aged 10~24 years in China has shown a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2021, with females having a higher disease burden than males.The incidence rate of depression among adolescents aged 10~24 in China is expected to show a decreasing trend from 2022 to 2035, while the prevalence rate and DALY rate are expected to first increase and then decrease.

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