Objective  To construct prediction model of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) to provide a reference for the prevention and control of NPC in China.

Methods  Data on the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of NPC among Chinese residents from 2012 to 2021, were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021 database. The grey prediction model GM(1,1) and the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) were constructed, and the fitting performance of the two models was compared. Predictions for the ASIR and ASMR of NPC in China from 2022 to 2026 were made.

Results  The GM(1,1) model exhibited lower mean absolute error and mean relative error compared to the ARIMA model, indicating better fitting performance. According to the GM(1,1) model predictions, by 2026, the total ASIR, male ASIR, and female ASIR of NPC in China are expected to rise to 3.83/100,000, 5.85/100,000, and 1.82/100,000, respectively, while the total ASMR, male ASMR, and female ASMR are projected to decline to 1.44/100,000, 2.23/100,000, and 0.71/100,000, respectively.

Conclusion  The GM(1,1) model outperforms the ARIMA model in predicting the incidence and mortality rates of NPC in China. The predictions suggest that over the next five years, the incidence of NPC in China will increase annually, while the mortality rate will decrease year by year.

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