Simulation of epidemic trends of 2019-nCoV epidemic trend under effective control measures
Published on Feb. 10, 2020Total Views: 25955 timesTotal Downloads: 8484 timesDownloadMobile
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Objective To simulate the epidemic trends of 2019-nCoV in a susceptible population under effective control measures.
Methods Data was collected from public resources. Agent-based modeling (ABM) was used to modeling the epidemic trend of 2019-nCoV. Assume that the first case of 2019-nCoV infection can be effectively treated and isolated after clinical symptoms appear, and the close contact between the other subjects is minimized. We assessed the epidemic trend of 2019-nCoV infection after the virus carriers enter the uninfected 2019-nCoV region.
Results As of January 30, 2020, the latency of 2019-nCoV was 6.6 days (95% CI: 5.9-7.5), and the cure time of 2019-nCoV was 9.8 days (95% CI: 8.8-10.8). When the virus carriers entered the uninfected area, as the number of daily close contacts increased, the number of infections increased. At the time of the first symptom patient, 42.4 times people were infected with close contact with 15 people a day than 5 people a day. After the end of incubation period, the number of 2019-nCoV infections will remain stable for a certain period of time. The number of infections will start to decline after 16 days, and absent after 27 days.
Conclusion With the effective control measures, including isolation and effective treatment of patients with 2019-nCoV, effective decrease the close contact between the population, the epidemic of 2019-nCoV would not seem to more than one month.
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