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The predictive value of AI-based retinal images model for diabetic retinopathy

Published on Apr. 01, 2026Total Views: 14 timesTotal Downloads: 2 timesDownloadMobile

Author: LIU Deyou 1 JI Jiangdong 2 LI Bo 3

Affiliation: 1. Department of Ophthalmology, Qixia Branch of Jiangsu Province Hospital, Nanjing 210046, China 2. Department of Ophthalmology, Jiangsu Province Hospital, Nanjing 210029, China 3. Department of Ophthalmology, Yangzhou University Affiliated Hospital/ Yangzhou First People's Hospital, Yangzhou 225000, Jiangsu Province, China

Keywords: Artificial intelligence Diabetic retinopathy Optical coherence tomography angiography Deep learning Predictive model

DOI: 10.12173/j.issn.1004-5511.202511011

Reference: Liu DY, Ji JD, Li B. The predictive value of AI-based retinal images model for diabetic retinopathy[J]. Yixue Xinzhi Zazhi, 2026, 36(3): 282-288. DOI: 10.12173/j.issn.1004-5511.202511011. [Article in Chinese]

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Abstract

Objective  Based on fundus color photography and optical coherence tomography angiography (OCTA) images, an artificial intelligence (AI) model was constructed to assess multiple tasks such as the grading of diabetes retinopathy (DR).

Methods  The study population comprised diabetic patients who received treatment at the Qixia Branch of Jiangsu Province Hospital, Jiangsu Province Hospital, or Yangzhou University Affiliated Hospital between January 2020 and December 2023. Fundus color photographs and OCTA images were collected from these patients and subjected to standardized pre-processing. Based on fundus color pho-tography and OCTA features, a predictive model was constructed using a multimodal con-volutional neural network. Three task branches were established: DR grading, prediction of proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) progression, and assessment of systemic com-plication risk. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and their area under the curve (AUC), Fleiss' Kappa coefficient, sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score.

Results  A total of 482 diabetic patients were included, 340 with DR. The validation set and training set exhibited consistent trends in loss curves and classification accuracy curves with minimal divergence, indicating that the predictive model did not overfit. The training set achieved a DR five-level classification accuracy of 94.2%. Within the test set, the model achieved an AUC value exceeding 0.90 for all five DR severity classifications, demonstrating high concordance with ophthalmologist assessments (Fleiss' Kappa=0.78, P<0.001). The AUC for predicting progression from moderate non-PDR to PDR was 0.896; the AUCs for predicting future diabetic nephropathy, cardiovascular events, and neuropathy were 0.854, 0.839, and 0.812 respectively.

Conclusion  The AI-based multimodal retinal image analysis system can achieve accurate grading, future progression risk prediction of DR, and assessment of systemic diabetic complications based on retinal imaging. It holds potential for clinical implementation and primary-level screening  applications.

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